What is the realistic, best case outcome in Iraq (Security of Iraq, Length of US involvement, Type of government) and what can the US do to make the best case outcome more likely?
Dr. Ottaway:
"A country somewhat similar to Bosnia, highly decentralized, very divided, very tense, with no real sense of common nationhood, but at least reasonably peaceful. Even that is a tall order because Iraq is too large a country for the international community to impose order as it was able to do in Bosnia. There is no chance at all that Iraq will become in the foreseeable future a united democratic country with a strong central government."
Dr. Bahry:
"The United States started by making a big mistake in dissolving the Iraq army. The Iraqi army was created in the 1920s and was non-sectarian, non-ethnic, and non-religious. It was a nationalist entity that did its best to preserve the integrity of the country, and its borders. Its not too late to rebuild. The way to do it is to give a general pardon to former bath party members, and then try to integrate these people into the army. I saw myself when the army was dissolved, people took to the streets and said they would not reintegrate and have since joined the insurgency or have joined the militias.
"There are 9 different ethnic and sectarian groups in Iraq and they each have had, for centuries if not millennia, their own areas and identity themselves with those areas. Because of this Iraq is not an easy country to rule. A government should be secular, and that's how it has been ruled since the 1920's. Now the government is divided into sectarian and ethic groups because of a lack of understanding of parliamentary system. There is no understanding of how to act collectively in the interests of Iraq. The individuals members of parliament and cabinet think they represent their party and/or sectarian group.
"The U.S. should try to encourage non-sectarian people to be more involved in the government. The head of the central bank of Iraq is a very professional man, Dr. Sinan Al-Shibibi. He stabilized the currency and has made it stronger over the last few years. People like him should be encouraged to serve throughout the government. The US also needs to help people understand they need to serve Iraq as a whole, not their political party or sectarian interests. This can not be achieved without building up the Iraqi identity which people do not have now. The government should impose symbols of Iraq across the country.
"The US can do a lot by focusing on al Qaeda. And the Iraqi government can use US help to train and build up the Iraqi army."
